I'm not Nostradamus, but . . .

OK. I’m a little late, but better late than never. Most make their yearly predictions at the end of the previous year or at the stroke of midnight on New Year’s Eve. As a sad indicator of aging and my recent work habits (too much) and sleep habits (not enough) I was sleeping by 10 PM on New Year’s Eve. So, even though it’s already mid-January I’d like to note a few thoughts about the learning industry in 2009. Most of the perspective is from a corporate learning view, but as learning technologies become a bigger part of learning solutions in K-12 and higher education, these thoughts may be appropriate for those arenas as well.

Economic Down Turn = eLearning Boom?
As the New Year begins, I’ve seen a trend in touting eLearning as a solution for aching corporate budgets.

Economic Crisis Boosts eLearning
US Economy and eLearning in 2008 (and 2009)
Elearning helping SMEs through the economic downturn

That’s great . . . and maybe not so great! eLearning can be more cost efficient than traditional learning methods. It is one benefit that should be considered when making training delivery decisions and determining a learning strategy for an organization. However, it’s only one component. The main target is improved performance with efficient and effective learning solutions. If eLearning is the best way to deliver learning to improve performance and it will reduce the overall cost of training and development, then the increased use of eLearning is positive – regardless of the state of the economy.

My fear is that eLearning will be implemented strictly as a cost saving measure during this economic downturn as it was in the economic downturn early in the decade. What resulted were online manuals, not effective learning solutions. As companies sought to reduce training costs through eLearning, the emphasis was on the “e” and not the learning. Accountants were happy, but learners and managers weren’t. The online manuals were painfully linear, not engaging and often lengthy. Learners may have completed the embedded questions to test for understanding and passed the final quiz with 80% or better, but little improved performance occurred as a result of the eLearning.

It’s taken the industry a number of years to recover and regain the trust of learners and managers. Granted, the industry has advanced both in technique and technology since the early parts of the decade, but I fear that an emphasis on “saving money” through eLearning will result in a lack of focus on improved performance. I hope that advancements that have resulted in more engaging learning solutions through blended learning, games for learning, simulations and scenario-based learning solutions don’t give way to a trend back to online manuals as eLearning in an effort to “save money.” Instead I hope that in 2009 companies continue to realize they can “save money” with eLearning by engaging learners in learning solutions that are built to improve performance, not strictly to reduce costs.

Instructional Design
As the use of learning technologies proliferate in corporate learning and education, the role of instructional design and the importance of the instructional designer will continue to evolve. Skilled instructional designers will be especially important if organizations begin looking at eLearning as mainly a cost savings solution (as described above). The instructional designer can be the key to driving a learning solution that not only “saves money”, but also delivers learning and performance improvement results. As rapid development, games for learning, simulations, virtual worlds, social learning and various other new techniques and tools become options for all sizes of companies and learning solutions, the analysis and instructional strategy skills of the instructional designer will be important for selecting the best solution and applying it efficiently and effectively. Just because you have a hammer, doesn’t mean everything is a nail! (I hate myself for that one, but you get the point.)

Visualization
Visual representation is a vital tool for communicating in today’s information-abundant world. Visuals are used to make the message relevant and easily understood when competing with a multitude of information from a wide variety of channels? Professionals in the learning industry (K-12 and corporate) must become better at using visuals to increase comprehension, motivation and memory. 2009 is the year of banning the bullet points! Check out these resources for more information about best practices for visual representation.

Visualization in Learning: 14 Case Studies that Emphasize Visual Thinking
Global community of visual thinkers
Slide:ology the blog and the book – resources for enhancing presentation with visuals
The Back of the Napkin – a process for visual representation

Integration
Products and services will continue to integrate in 2009. The past year resulted in a number of Learning Management Systems (LMS) adding social learning (wikis and blogs) components.

A few LMS’s with social learning components:

Outstart
Mzinga
Meridian Global LMS

In the year and year’s to come virtual worlds, web conferencing, social learning and learning management may be composed all in one product. I for one would rather experience an LMS as learning objects in a virtual world than a list of text-based courses and course descriptions. Increased computing power, paradigm shifts in learning presentation, interoperable avatars and virtual objects, SCORM advancement, and faster Internet speed will all play a part in the evolution and integration of learning products into one complete learning system.

Matt Croslin’s Sloodle presentation on authorSTREAM

Virtual Conferences are the closest example I’ve seen of what I envision. Check out these virtual conference resources and examples.

Business Week article on virtual conferences
Ziff Davis Virtual Tradeshows
iCongo Live
Tradkey
Virtual Conferences.com
Tips for Virtual Tradeshows

Marketing as a Component of the Learning Organization
Learning is a product. And, the competition for customers (yes, learners are customers) is becoming more competitive. Even in K-12, traditional public schools are beginning to compete with cyber schools and charter schools. In corporate learning, the competition is time, attention, motivation and accountability. In this competitive environment, learning organizations must aggressively market the product (learning solutions) to be successful. For K-12 this means showcasing student and teacher successes to the faculty, students, school board, and community on a regular basis through media-based solutions. In higher ed, course descriptions should describe and “sell” the course to prospective students. Otherwise, student testimonials, video highlights and project showcases can be marketing tools to increase enrollment in elective courses. In corporate learning, some courses warrant a marketing campaign (including a video commercial – gasp!) highlighting the features and benefits of the course to increase participation.

As you regard marketing as a component of learning implementation in 2009, consider that learners may want to know what features (bookmarking, social connections, note taking, simulations, games, etc.) are part of an online course, how the course will benefit them, what previous learners think about the course, and how previous learners performed in the course.

Well, those are some of my thoughts anyway. Regardless, the economy, new leadership in Washington, limited resources, increased competition and continued advances in learning technologies should make 2009 an interesting year in the learning evolution.